Summer officially began on Friday, June 20. This marked the summer solstice and the longest day of the year. Summer will last until Monday, Sept. 22, when the fall – or, autumnal - equinox occurs.

While all Texans know to expect plenty of hot weather each summer, seasonal forecasts can give us a better idea of what to expect the next several months.

These seasonal forecasts, issued for both temperature and precipitation, are provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). They’re based on numerous factors. One of the most important is the presence of El Niño or La Niña. This is often referred to as ENSO, or the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. These are climate patterns that can affect large-scale weather patterns over North America.

The CPC said in June that ENSO-neutral conditions were present and expected to last through the summer and, possibly, into winter.  

ENSO-neutral conditions mean there’s no direct influence from El Niño or La Niña.

In terms of seasonal outlooks, this means influences on weather patterns will likely come as a result of other sources, including seasonal normal or averages for a given area.

It’s important to note that seasonal forecasts consider the weather over three months and certain days may vary from what the overall seasonal forecast calls for.

Summer Temperature Outlook

Much of Texas, including a majority of Oncor’s service area, has a 50-60 percent chance to see hotter than average weather this summer. Parts of far West Texas, including the Big Bend region, have a 60-70 percent chance for a hotter than average summer.

Note: the average temperature for each month includes both the morning low and afternoon high each day.

Average temperatures will vary from location to location. However, regardless of location, temperatures generally peak for the year in July and August.

Below are average summer temperatures for some locations across Oncor’s service area.

For example, in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, there’s a 50-60 percent chance that the average temperature in August will be higher than 86 degrees.

Summer Rainfall Outlook

Parts of North and West Texas, as well as parts of the Hill Country, have a 33-40 percent  chance for below average rainfall this summer. However, elsewhere in Texas, rainfall is expected to be near average.

Just like with temperatures, average rainfall across the state varies by location. Below is the average summer precipitation for several locations in Oncor’s service area.

For example, Wichita Falls has a 33-40 percent chance to get less than 2.5 inches of rain in August. Meanwhile, the Tyler area is expected to receive around 2.6 inches of rain in August.

Hurricane Season

Hurricane season began on June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30. This hurricane season is expected to be slightly more active than normal.

Wildfires

Wildfire danger can be difficult to forecast beyond several days. However, seasonal drought forecasts are available and can be used to determine whether dry conditions may increase the overall fire danger in an area.

The CPC’s drought outlook for this summer suggests existing drought across parts of South and West Texas will continue. As a result, it is possible that dry vegetation will aid in elevated fire danger at times this summer.

However, new drought development is not expected. This is good news and may play a role in keeping fire danger lower in parts of the state.

Note: daily fire danger levels are also influenced by relative humidity levels and wind speeds. 

We encourage our customers to learn more about how to help prevent wildfires during high-risk conditions.

Final Thoughts

Oncor works diligently throughout the year to prepare our equipment and facilities for the changing seasons. This includes an emphasis on the building heat during the summer months. We also closely monitor both short-term and seasonal weather and forecast data.

Oncor uses an in-house meteorologist and a third-party weather monitoring service year-round, allowing us to remain prepared to respond to potential weather impacts that may threaten our service area. Our customers can rest assured Oncor is always ready to respond to weather impacts.

This information is provided by Oncor’s in-house meteorologist, Kaiti Blake. Kaiti is an AMS certified broadcast meteorologist with more than nine years of forecast & broadcast experience.